Post by Tulsa Roughnecks GM on May 23, 2009 23:34:03 GMT -5
Here's the bulk of an article I wrote this evening for the FF Maniaxs which analyzes our rookie draft. Enjoy...
Here are the picks by round with my analysis:
Round 1
1.1: Belgium Destroyers: RB Knowshon Moreno, Broncos
1.2: Washington Imperials (via Roughnecks): WR Michael Crabtree, 49ers
1.3: Phantoms: RB Chris Wells, Cardinals
1.4: Ottawa Roughriders: RB LeSean McCoy, Eagles
1.5: Waddling Mummies: RB Donald Brown, Colts
1.6: Mummies (via Cripplers): RB Shonn Greene, Jets
1.7: Raccoon City Zombies (via Roughnecks via Imperials): WR Jeremy Maclin, Eagles
1.8: Roughnecks (via Zombies): WR Percy Harvin, Vikings
1.9: Kashyyyk Wookies: WR Hakeem Nicks, Giants
1.10: Legion’s: WR Brian Robiskie, Browns
While I’ve seen Crabtree fall lower in some drafts, I’ve been saying all along it’s a two person draft. If you have the #1 pick, I’d rate Moreno and Crabtree about even, so take the one that improves your team the most.
Tier 2 is an even shorter list: Beanie Wells. He’ll be taken ahead of Crabtree by people who still value RBs significantly above WRs. But questions about his durability and work ethic knock him down a peg.
The next four picks all make sense as Tier 3. McCoy, Brown and Greene all enjoy very similar opportunities to have instant impact as rookies, while Maclin is the only other WR who can be rationally mentioned in the same sentence with Crabtree.
Harvin is the wild card of the first round. He could be the steal of the draft or a bust of epic proportions. There will be some crazy owner in every draft who thinks the world of him. In this example, that would be me. I’ve seen Harvin go early in some drafts, and people trade like crazy to be in a position to get him in others.
Closing out the round, Nicks and Robiskie are both perfectly solid picks. It takes a little more faith to believe in their fantasy impact as rookies, yet both have excellent opportunities to produce for you very soon, if not immediately.
Round 2
2.1: Legion’s: LB James Laurinaitis, Rams
2.2: Wookies: LB Aaron Curry, Seahawks
2.3: Zombies: LB Rey Maualuga, Bengals
2.4: Imperials: QB Mathew Stafford, Lions
2.5: Cripplers: QB Mark Sanchez, Jets
2.6: Cripplers (via Mummies): WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders
2.7: Roughriders: DE Tyson Jackson, Chiefs
2.8: Mummies (via Phantoms): DE Brian Orakpo, Redskins
2.9: Roughnecks: WR Austin Collie, Colts
2.10: Destroyers: LB Clay Matthews, Packers
The short LB run at the top of the second round almost makes perfect sense. Once the top RBs and WRs are off the board, many owners will opt for the can’t miss IDP over a higher risk offensive player. Laurinaitis is far and away the best candidate to have the now typical breakout rookie season, just because of his opportunity.
I am a huge believer, however, in Curry and his talent, and was trying madly to trade back up into the late first round to draft him. Maualuga also has the talent factor going for him even though his opportunity is the least certain of these three. Getting Matthews at the end of this round seems like a value pick in comparison.
There are very few consistencies after the top three picks in the rookie drafts I’ve seen. One of them is the top two QBs, Stafford and Sanchez, go off the board right around these spots.
Since we don’t know enough yet about how these players will perform, I won’t label any pick “bad,” but Jackson as the first DE off the board is certainly the riskiest pick. Yes, he is very talented, but DEs in 3-4 base defenses are generally waiver wire material in fantasy no matter how good they are in real football.
Orakpo is a much better bet for fantasy production. I am so excited about his prospects in Washington that it was a real punch in the gut to see him go just before my pick.
Still, I am happy with my selection of Collie here. I’ll admit this was a bit of a reach, as he has more of a mid-third round value. I find myself agreeing with the pundits who hail Collie as the second coming of former Colts slot receiver Brandon Stokley.
Round 3
3.1: Destroyers: DE Aaron Maybin, Bills
3.2: Roughnecks: RB Gartrell Johnson, Chargers
3.3: Roughriders (via Phantoms): TE Brandon Pettigrew, Lions
3.4: Roughriders: WR Kenny Britt, Titans
3.5: Roughnecks (via Mummies): DT BJ. Raji, Packers
3.6: Cripplers: CB Malcolm Jenkins, Saints
3.7: Mummies (via Imperials): S Patrick Chung, Patriots
3.8: Imperials (via Zombies): RB Rashad Jennings, Jaguars
3.9: Mummies (via Wookies): QB Josh Freeman, Bucs
3.10: Legion’s: TE Jared Cook, Titans
There are still some great values to be had in the third round of this deep rookie class. Pettigrew and Britt in particular come at a bargain here. If you believe in either Jennings or Freeman, now would be the time to get them as well.
Maybin has decent value at the top of this round. While it may take a couple years, Maybin is more likely to reward the patient dynasty owner than the DLs drafted after him.
As you can see, this league has separate roster spots for CB and S. Even without considering that quirk, the third round is the earliest you’d want to see any DBs drafted. Having said that, Jenkins and Chung are two of the very few DBs who are worth taking at this point. Both will be tested as rookies, and both will probably emerge from “rookie cornerback syndrome” with excellent long term IDP futures.
Again, I have to nominate myself for the riskiest pick this round, not once but twice. Especially at this point in the draft, I much prefer taking players based solely on my own draft board with no consideration for what the consensus average draft position might be. One could make a similar case for a few other RBs drafted later, but I believe Johnson has the skills to be a workhorse RB in the NFL and only has to wait for LaDanian Tomilinson to break down to seize his opportunity.
I’m also going out on a limb with Raji. NTs in 3-4 base defenses often have a rough time making any kind of fantasy impact, but an elite player at that position can vault himself into some pretty lofty IDP value. I believe Raji is already the best NT in the league.
To close out the round, Cook is a sneaky good pick. Tennessee uses the TE extensively in the passing game. We just forgot this because they haven’t had a decent pass catching TE in several years. If this offensive scheme can make Bo Scaife relevant in fantasy, then Cook should do very well for his owners.
Round 4
4.1: Legion’s: CB Vontae Davis, Dolphins
4.2: Wookies: DE Robert Ayers, Broncos
4.3: Zombies: LB Brian Cushing, Texans
4.4: Imperials: DE Paul Kruger, Ravens
4.5: Imperials (via Cripplers): TE Shawn Nelson, Bills
4.6: Imperials (via Mummies): S Louis Delmas, Lions
4.7: Roughriders: LB Larry English, Chargers
4.8: Phantoms: RB James Davis, Browns
4.9: Roughnecks: S William Moore, Falcons
4.10: Destroyers: DE Michael Johnson, Bengals
Round four is dominated by defense. It’s hard to pass any judgment on these picks because this is where the real speculation happens. Will Cushing win the weakside starting job in Houston? Is Kruger always going to play like the guy we saw destroy Alabama in the Sugar Bowl? Can Johnson live up to his talent level playing in Cincinnati? Apparently these owners believe the answer is “yes” to these questions.
Note this league is on ESPN, which is notorious for haphazardly assigning positions to players based on where they played in college instead of where they will play in the NFL. This makes Ayers a much more enticing pick here, and may have influenced the Johnson owner as well. Unfortunately, ESPN already scores English as an LB, so you really have to believe in him to take him here.
Both Delmas and Moore going a full round after the first two DBs off the board means these owners got good value. Yes, I know I’m patting myself on the back here, but I counted myself lucky to find Moore still available at the end of this round. There’s a huge gap in value after these top four DBs.
Meanwhile, some smart guy snuck in and snagged Davis. He’s another propsect who doesn’t have much standing between himself and sudden stardom, and is an excellent chance to take in the fourth round.
The only other offensive pick in this round, Nelson, is fine here if you believe there will be enough passes after Terrell Owens, Lee Evans and Marshawn Lynch get theirs to feed him.
Round 5
5.1: Zombies (via Destroyers) TE Cornelius Ingram, Eagles
5.2: Roughnecks: QB Pat White, Dolphins
5.3: Phantoms: WR Ramses Barden, Giants
5.4: Roughriders: TE Chase Coffman, Bengals
5.5: Destroyers (via Mummies): RB Andre Brown, Giants
5.6: Cripplers: DE David Veikune, Browns
5.7: Cripplers (via Imperials): CB Jerius Byrd, Bills
5.8: Destroyers (via Zombies): DE Jarron Gilbert, Bears
5.9: Imperials (via Wookies): RB Jeremiah Johnson, Texans
5.10: Legion’s: WR Brandon Tate, Patriots
Every single pick here is boom or bust. I can’t argue against the upside of any of these players.
I received a number of trade offers for the 5.2 pick, but once White fell to me I decided to spurn all advances. This is the point in the draft where most everyone has one or two guys left that they are almost irrationally excited about and thinks is the perfect sleeper pick. As for myself, I do believe White’s future is as a QB and am long on record proclaiming that Chad Henne stinks. So I’m hoping to have an exciting starting QB on my roster in two or three years.
Brown fell much further here than I’ve seen in any other draft. People are sold on the notion of the Giants as an RB factory. The middle of the fifth round is tremendous value for someone who could easily step right into Derrick Ward’s role from last year.
The other picks I really liked in this round were Coffman and Veikune. Coffman has durability questions but I think few have realized just what a great opportunity he has to put up numbers in this offense. Veikune is another one of those ESPN specials who has a bright and immediate future as a pass rushing LB in Cleveland, so much so that I would consider him an excellent pick here even if he were scored just as an LB in your league.
Round 6
6.1: Mummies (via Legion’s): RB Glen Coffee, 49ers
6.2: Wookies: RB Bernard Scott, Bengals
6.3: Destroyers (via Zombies): K Ryan Succop, Chiefs
6.4: Cripplers (via Imperials): S Mike Mitchell, Raiders
6.5: Cripplers: WR Louis Murphy, Raiders
6.6: Legion's (via Mummies): DT Peria Jerry, Falcons
6.7: Ottawa Roughriders: CB Alphonso Smith, Broncos
6.8: Phantoms: WR Juaquin Iglesias, Bears
6.9: Roughnecks: TE Travis Beckum, Giants
6.10: Zombies (via Destroyers): WR Mike Thomas, Jaguars
Unlike the fifth round, I find the values here for the most part highly questionable. However, I again experienced that gut-punch feeling when Mitchell was drafted. I was certain he was on no one else’s radar and was looking forward to nabbing the most vicious headhunter in the whole rookie class.
After Mitchell, the picks I liked the most in the last round are the last three. I personally downgrade Iglesias, but one cannot deny he goes from one of the most prolific passing offenses in college to a great opportunity to catch passes from Jay Cutler in Chicago.
I was torn between Beckum and Thomas for my last pick. I went with Beckum because I had picked Kellen Winslow in the offensive draft and wanted some insurance, and feel the same way about him as I do about Coffman. Beckum is a TE who catches better than he blocks and is in an offense which recently starred Jeremy Shockey. Meanwhile, somebody’s got to rise to the top of the rebuilding Jacksonville WR corps, and Thomas is a better one than most to bet on there. An excellent pick to close out the draft.
Here are the picks by round with my analysis:
Round 1
1.1: Belgium Destroyers: RB Knowshon Moreno, Broncos
1.2: Washington Imperials (via Roughnecks): WR Michael Crabtree, 49ers
1.3: Phantoms: RB Chris Wells, Cardinals
1.4: Ottawa Roughriders: RB LeSean McCoy, Eagles
1.5: Waddling Mummies: RB Donald Brown, Colts
1.6: Mummies (via Cripplers): RB Shonn Greene, Jets
1.7: Raccoon City Zombies (via Roughnecks via Imperials): WR Jeremy Maclin, Eagles
1.8: Roughnecks (via Zombies): WR Percy Harvin, Vikings
1.9: Kashyyyk Wookies: WR Hakeem Nicks, Giants
1.10: Legion’s: WR Brian Robiskie, Browns
While I’ve seen Crabtree fall lower in some drafts, I’ve been saying all along it’s a two person draft. If you have the #1 pick, I’d rate Moreno and Crabtree about even, so take the one that improves your team the most.
Tier 2 is an even shorter list: Beanie Wells. He’ll be taken ahead of Crabtree by people who still value RBs significantly above WRs. But questions about his durability and work ethic knock him down a peg.
The next four picks all make sense as Tier 3. McCoy, Brown and Greene all enjoy very similar opportunities to have instant impact as rookies, while Maclin is the only other WR who can be rationally mentioned in the same sentence with Crabtree.
Harvin is the wild card of the first round. He could be the steal of the draft or a bust of epic proportions. There will be some crazy owner in every draft who thinks the world of him. In this example, that would be me. I’ve seen Harvin go early in some drafts, and people trade like crazy to be in a position to get him in others.
Closing out the round, Nicks and Robiskie are both perfectly solid picks. It takes a little more faith to believe in their fantasy impact as rookies, yet both have excellent opportunities to produce for you very soon, if not immediately.
Round 2
2.1: Legion’s: LB James Laurinaitis, Rams
2.2: Wookies: LB Aaron Curry, Seahawks
2.3: Zombies: LB Rey Maualuga, Bengals
2.4: Imperials: QB Mathew Stafford, Lions
2.5: Cripplers: QB Mark Sanchez, Jets
2.6: Cripplers (via Mummies): WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders
2.7: Roughriders: DE Tyson Jackson, Chiefs
2.8: Mummies (via Phantoms): DE Brian Orakpo, Redskins
2.9: Roughnecks: WR Austin Collie, Colts
2.10: Destroyers: LB Clay Matthews, Packers
The short LB run at the top of the second round almost makes perfect sense. Once the top RBs and WRs are off the board, many owners will opt for the can’t miss IDP over a higher risk offensive player. Laurinaitis is far and away the best candidate to have the now typical breakout rookie season, just because of his opportunity.
I am a huge believer, however, in Curry and his talent, and was trying madly to trade back up into the late first round to draft him. Maualuga also has the talent factor going for him even though his opportunity is the least certain of these three. Getting Matthews at the end of this round seems like a value pick in comparison.
There are very few consistencies after the top three picks in the rookie drafts I’ve seen. One of them is the top two QBs, Stafford and Sanchez, go off the board right around these spots.
Since we don’t know enough yet about how these players will perform, I won’t label any pick “bad,” but Jackson as the first DE off the board is certainly the riskiest pick. Yes, he is very talented, but DEs in 3-4 base defenses are generally waiver wire material in fantasy no matter how good they are in real football.
Orakpo is a much better bet for fantasy production. I am so excited about his prospects in Washington that it was a real punch in the gut to see him go just before my pick.
Still, I am happy with my selection of Collie here. I’ll admit this was a bit of a reach, as he has more of a mid-third round value. I find myself agreeing with the pundits who hail Collie as the second coming of former Colts slot receiver Brandon Stokley.
Round 3
3.1: Destroyers: DE Aaron Maybin, Bills
3.2: Roughnecks: RB Gartrell Johnson, Chargers
3.3: Roughriders (via Phantoms): TE Brandon Pettigrew, Lions
3.4: Roughriders: WR Kenny Britt, Titans
3.5: Roughnecks (via Mummies): DT BJ. Raji, Packers
3.6: Cripplers: CB Malcolm Jenkins, Saints
3.7: Mummies (via Imperials): S Patrick Chung, Patriots
3.8: Imperials (via Zombies): RB Rashad Jennings, Jaguars
3.9: Mummies (via Wookies): QB Josh Freeman, Bucs
3.10: Legion’s: TE Jared Cook, Titans
There are still some great values to be had in the third round of this deep rookie class. Pettigrew and Britt in particular come at a bargain here. If you believe in either Jennings or Freeman, now would be the time to get them as well.
Maybin has decent value at the top of this round. While it may take a couple years, Maybin is more likely to reward the patient dynasty owner than the DLs drafted after him.
As you can see, this league has separate roster spots for CB and S. Even without considering that quirk, the third round is the earliest you’d want to see any DBs drafted. Having said that, Jenkins and Chung are two of the very few DBs who are worth taking at this point. Both will be tested as rookies, and both will probably emerge from “rookie cornerback syndrome” with excellent long term IDP futures.
Again, I have to nominate myself for the riskiest pick this round, not once but twice. Especially at this point in the draft, I much prefer taking players based solely on my own draft board with no consideration for what the consensus average draft position might be. One could make a similar case for a few other RBs drafted later, but I believe Johnson has the skills to be a workhorse RB in the NFL and only has to wait for LaDanian Tomilinson to break down to seize his opportunity.
I’m also going out on a limb with Raji. NTs in 3-4 base defenses often have a rough time making any kind of fantasy impact, but an elite player at that position can vault himself into some pretty lofty IDP value. I believe Raji is already the best NT in the league.
To close out the round, Cook is a sneaky good pick. Tennessee uses the TE extensively in the passing game. We just forgot this because they haven’t had a decent pass catching TE in several years. If this offensive scheme can make Bo Scaife relevant in fantasy, then Cook should do very well for his owners.
Round 4
4.1: Legion’s: CB Vontae Davis, Dolphins
4.2: Wookies: DE Robert Ayers, Broncos
4.3: Zombies: LB Brian Cushing, Texans
4.4: Imperials: DE Paul Kruger, Ravens
4.5: Imperials (via Cripplers): TE Shawn Nelson, Bills
4.6: Imperials (via Mummies): S Louis Delmas, Lions
4.7: Roughriders: LB Larry English, Chargers
4.8: Phantoms: RB James Davis, Browns
4.9: Roughnecks: S William Moore, Falcons
4.10: Destroyers: DE Michael Johnson, Bengals
Round four is dominated by defense. It’s hard to pass any judgment on these picks because this is where the real speculation happens. Will Cushing win the weakside starting job in Houston? Is Kruger always going to play like the guy we saw destroy Alabama in the Sugar Bowl? Can Johnson live up to his talent level playing in Cincinnati? Apparently these owners believe the answer is “yes” to these questions.
Note this league is on ESPN, which is notorious for haphazardly assigning positions to players based on where they played in college instead of where they will play in the NFL. This makes Ayers a much more enticing pick here, and may have influenced the Johnson owner as well. Unfortunately, ESPN already scores English as an LB, so you really have to believe in him to take him here.
Both Delmas and Moore going a full round after the first two DBs off the board means these owners got good value. Yes, I know I’m patting myself on the back here, but I counted myself lucky to find Moore still available at the end of this round. There’s a huge gap in value after these top four DBs.
Meanwhile, some smart guy snuck in and snagged Davis. He’s another propsect who doesn’t have much standing between himself and sudden stardom, and is an excellent chance to take in the fourth round.
The only other offensive pick in this round, Nelson, is fine here if you believe there will be enough passes after Terrell Owens, Lee Evans and Marshawn Lynch get theirs to feed him.
Round 5
5.1: Zombies (via Destroyers) TE Cornelius Ingram, Eagles
5.2: Roughnecks: QB Pat White, Dolphins
5.3: Phantoms: WR Ramses Barden, Giants
5.4: Roughriders: TE Chase Coffman, Bengals
5.5: Destroyers (via Mummies): RB Andre Brown, Giants
5.6: Cripplers: DE David Veikune, Browns
5.7: Cripplers (via Imperials): CB Jerius Byrd, Bills
5.8: Destroyers (via Zombies): DE Jarron Gilbert, Bears
5.9: Imperials (via Wookies): RB Jeremiah Johnson, Texans
5.10: Legion’s: WR Brandon Tate, Patriots
Every single pick here is boom or bust. I can’t argue against the upside of any of these players.
I received a number of trade offers for the 5.2 pick, but once White fell to me I decided to spurn all advances. This is the point in the draft where most everyone has one or two guys left that they are almost irrationally excited about and thinks is the perfect sleeper pick. As for myself, I do believe White’s future is as a QB and am long on record proclaiming that Chad Henne stinks. So I’m hoping to have an exciting starting QB on my roster in two or three years.
Brown fell much further here than I’ve seen in any other draft. People are sold on the notion of the Giants as an RB factory. The middle of the fifth round is tremendous value for someone who could easily step right into Derrick Ward’s role from last year.
The other picks I really liked in this round were Coffman and Veikune. Coffman has durability questions but I think few have realized just what a great opportunity he has to put up numbers in this offense. Veikune is another one of those ESPN specials who has a bright and immediate future as a pass rushing LB in Cleveland, so much so that I would consider him an excellent pick here even if he were scored just as an LB in your league.
Round 6
6.1: Mummies (via Legion’s): RB Glen Coffee, 49ers
6.2: Wookies: RB Bernard Scott, Bengals
6.3: Destroyers (via Zombies): K Ryan Succop, Chiefs
6.4: Cripplers (via Imperials): S Mike Mitchell, Raiders
6.5: Cripplers: WR Louis Murphy, Raiders
6.6: Legion's (via Mummies): DT Peria Jerry, Falcons
6.7: Ottawa Roughriders: CB Alphonso Smith, Broncos
6.8: Phantoms: WR Juaquin Iglesias, Bears
6.9: Roughnecks: TE Travis Beckum, Giants
6.10: Zombies (via Destroyers): WR Mike Thomas, Jaguars
Unlike the fifth round, I find the values here for the most part highly questionable. However, I again experienced that gut-punch feeling when Mitchell was drafted. I was certain he was on no one else’s radar and was looking forward to nabbing the most vicious headhunter in the whole rookie class.
After Mitchell, the picks I liked the most in the last round are the last three. I personally downgrade Iglesias, but one cannot deny he goes from one of the most prolific passing offenses in college to a great opportunity to catch passes from Jay Cutler in Chicago.
I was torn between Beckum and Thomas for my last pick. I went with Beckum because I had picked Kellen Winslow in the offensive draft and wanted some insurance, and feel the same way about him as I do about Coffman. Beckum is a TE who catches better than he blocks and is in an offense which recently starred Jeremy Shockey. Meanwhile, somebody’s got to rise to the top of the rebuilding Jacksonville WR corps, and Thomas is a better one than most to bet on there. An excellent pick to close out the draft.